it’s been five years since the advent of the insurgent group named BOKO HARAM, following hotly on the heels of the declaration of sharia in some Northern states.
Five years of anguish, blood shed, grief and anger. Anger directed at every one. Even God was not spared. Anger at him for allowing his people to go through this holocaust in the midst of so much supplications, tithes and vigils.
The survival of insurgent groups depend on
1. Discontent amongst the populace. This was rife in #MyCountry following the lukewarm attitude of the President towards everything governance. It was also rife because some of us thought we have a birthright on leadership. It was first of all rife because the state Governments and the elites of those regions had a different approach to leadership.
2. Flows from above. The co-operation of the locals. This happens when the insurgents provides what the government of the day can’t provide for them, like basic comfort. Or when they, especially the youths are left unengaged due to unemployment. They become ready recruits.
3. Friendly co-operations from neighboring countries. It has been alleged that there may be support (even if covert) from Cameroun,Chad and Niger. The free boarder pass of these insurgents furthers this point.
4. Support from local elites. This remains to be proved in our case but rumors are rife. A sitting senator is being tried on this account. Another had a cousin arrested in his house on the same account. So many statements alluding to inadvertent support or outright refusal to condemn the activities of this group comes to mind.
4. Failure of leadership. This needs no expatiation.
Out of these four factors, BOKO HARAM has not kept faith with numbers two and three. The constant killings, harassment and kidnapping of locals have or sure will bring them to a logger head with the locals, which in turn will bring their days to little numbers. The civilian JTF had some impact on them. To counter this, they will use forced conscription. This too usually causes more bad blood for them. A viscous cycle the ensues.
The recent bombing of a police station in Cameroun signifies another derailment from their ideals. The country will respond by tightening their boarders, which would deal them a dirty blow. Their stay in Chad or Niger (as currently rumored) will come to end if they harass the locals too. This is inevitable as they will need resources.
Factors one and four is not within their scope of influence and number one can only subsist because number four exists.
This is why I’d like to think that BOKO HARAM’s days were numbered before we even invited the ‘experts’.
By and large, intelligence is not something I’d like to attribute to this group of cowardly urchins.
The buck returns to the table of the C-in-C and he has asked for help and help is here. We thus await results.
I’ve been told to ignore my fears of the collateral damage I expect. I have reluctantly agreed.
This will be my last post-Mortem on BH and my last comment on the advent of the Americans ( I sincerely hope but not under any oath).
#StayTrue to #MyCountry.
#StaySafe in #MyCountry.